Five skills

Each comes with a worked example you can play through before you see a strong answer.

1. Skill 1Test the thesis, not the summaryRebuild any headline metric from the data, starting with its denominator, before it goes in the thesis.Worked example: The AI summary says 108% retention. Do you believe it?
2. Skill 2Know where the return comes fromSplit every return into growth, debt paydown and multiple before you trust it.Worked example: The model says 2.5x. Where does the return come from?
3. Skill 3Underwrite the cash flows that could shrinkForecast a shrinking line on its own, across a range of decline rates, and price the deal on that.Worked example: Revenue grew 9.1%. Is the review business safe?
4. Skill 4Build a plan that grows the businessJudge a value creation plan at exit, and find the growth rate where your choice flips.Worked example: AI cost-out or growth: which plan goes to IC?
5. Skill 5Make the recommendation and say what would change itLead with the decision and the price, show the downside, and say what would change your mind.Worked example: You have five minutes at IC. What do you recommend?

Draft · not yet reviewed